Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.654630 14.774265 17.092601 19.810221 22.901990 26.303203 30.321129
2024-10-27 9.290501 12.153528 15.599315 20.022424 25.516663 32.081852 40.481667
2024-11-03 7.669642 11.046845 15.449295 21.535237 29.644712 39.982637 54.045532
2024-11-10 6.355481 9.968446 15.018988 22.459885 32.979655 47.129707 67.367268
2024-11-17 5.373385 9.099198 14.641228 23.274071 36.117753 54.199595 81.170807
2024-11-24 4.391866 8.005270 13.707088 23.064911 37.659293 59.078936 92.265123
2024-12-01 3.502997 6.863921 12.480776 22.172464 37.977261 62.094316 100.797251
2024-12-08 2.843364 5.970123 11.487425 21.463043 38.414456 65.216810 109.619340
2024-12-15 2.446362 5.468229 11.066692 21.617217 40.204002 70.512472 122.117651
2024-12-22 2.058829 4.902228 10.433293 21.293008 41.112409 74.413036 132.629480
2024-12-29 1.895619 4.759620 10.561593 22.344638 44.478417 82.580607 150.621491
2025-01-05 1.687868 4.477790 10.370766 22.757897 46.714694 88.971167 166.047277
2025-01-12 1.477067 4.156142 10.071250 22.962729 48.663187 95.150085 181.809856
2025-01-19 1.292683 3.858813 9.779890 23.152503 50.614344 101.514013 198.413978
2025-01-26 1.240221 3.881339 10.192206 24.849966 55.655073 113.841213 226.421339
2025-02-02 1.146286 3.774494 10.293380 25.890328 59.476549 124.183312 251.509547
2025-02-09 1.054558 3.652783 10.339402 26.809692 63.126200 134.445145 277.081062
2025-02-16 0.912454 3.351385 9.899516 26.571471 64.329197 140.089632 294.385332
2025-02-23 0.755816 2.962965 9.171502 25.559625 63.763672 142.210389 305.108287
2025-03-02 0.632659 2.644610 8.567242 24.755078 63.552133 144.986069 317.222208
2025-03-09 0.562987 2.486251 8.370158 24.929852 65.545346 152.362612 338.788761
2025-03-16 0.484755 2.273912 7.981913 24.562136 66.246951 157.095832 355.341927
2025-03-23 0.461776 2.261961 8.179073 25.754502 70.715634 170.042143 389.226875